The attribution to climate change, and improved forecasting of extreme and slow-onset climate- and weather-related events and their impacts
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See in 5 min if you're eligible for The attribution to climate change, and improved forecasting of extreme and slow-onset climate- and weather-related events and their impacts offering max €56.0M funding💰 Funding Details
Funding Description
Call Identifier: HORIZON-CL5-2025-06-D1-04
Type of Action: HORIZON-RIA (Lump-Sum)
Total Indicative Budget per Project: up to €56 million (lump-sum)
Opening Date: 06 May 2025
Deadline: 24 September 2025 – 17:00 (Brussels time)
What is Financed?
* Development of advanced attribution methodologies for extreme and slow-onset climate events.
* Creation/enhancement of global databases of extreme events, impacts and attribution.
* Improvement of forecasting capacities that bridge climate science and operational services (e.g. early-warning, DRR, humanitarian planning).
* Integration of social-science approaches to address vulnerability, exposure and climate justice.
* International cooperation activities, especially with the Global South, for capacity building and data sharing.
Eligible Costs & Lump-Sum Logic
Under the lump-sum model, all direct and indirect costs are pre-agreed during grant preparation. Payments are triggered by the satisfactory completion of work packages, not by cost reporting.
Typical Budget Split (illustrative)
1. Research & Development (≈45 %) – observation networks, model development, AI/ML experimentation.
2. Data Infrastructure (≈15 %) – FAIR-compliant repositories, pilot databases, digital twins.
3. Demonstrators & Pilots (≈20 %) – operational forecasting prototypes, co-design workshops with practitioners.
4. SSH & Citizen Science (≈10 %) – participatory research, climate-justice frameworks.
5. Project Management, Dissemination, Clustering (≈10 %) – including networking with Destination Earth, XAIDA, CLINT, etc.
Geographic & Participation Rules
* Consortia must include ≥ 3 independent legal entities from three different EU Member States or Horizon-Europe Associated Countries.
* Partners from other regions (e.g. your country in the Global South) are welcome and can be funded if on the automatically eligible list or via own funding.
Open Science Obligations
* Open access to substantially improved models, tools and datasets.
* Compliance with FAIR principles for all research outputs.
* Transparency of assumptions, protocols and code beyond standard documentation.
📊 At a Glance
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🇪🇺 Strategic Advantages
Pan-European Advantages & Opportunities for Call HORIZON-CL5-2025-06-D1-04
1. Single Market Access (450 + million citizens)
• Pan-EU public authorities & utilities – results feed directly into EU civil-protection actors (ERCC, rescEU, Copernicus Emergency), opening procurement pathways worth >€1 bn/yr.
• Private climate-service providers – unified access to insurance, agriculture, energy & infrastructure markets governed by common EU directives (CSRD, EU taxonomy, SFDR) that mandate climate-risk information.
• Data monetisation at scale – one harmonised licence for 27 Member States under INSPIRE/Open-Data Directive reduces transaction costs and accelerates uptake.
2. Cross-Border Collaboration & Knowledge Exchange
• Consortium can combine North-South climate gradients (Nordic heatwaves vs. Mediterranean droughts) to build richer attribution models impossible at national scale.
• Seamless use of EU research infrastructures: ECMWF (Reading & Bologna), EUMETSAT (Darmstadt), Destination Earth digital twins and pan-European HPC/AI under EuroHPC.
• Easier mobility of researchers through Marie Skłodowska-Curie and ERA-Talent schemes; compatible IP rules via DESCA.
3. Alignment with Flagship EU Policies
• European Green Deal & EU Climate Law – provides legally required scientific basis for the 2040 target review and National Energy & Climate Plans (NECPs).
• EU Strategy on Adaptation to Climate Change (2021) – delivers "Action 5: better data and risk assessment"; enables JustResilience objectives.
• Digital Europe & Data Spaces – outputs can populate the Common European Green Deal Data Space and Climate Data Space announced in the Data Act.
4. Regulatory Harmonisation Benefits
• One GDPR & one AI Act compliance framework instead of 27 different regimes.
• Standardised Copernicus data policy allows integration of satellite, in-situ and citizen-science data across borders.
• Consistent application of the EU Civil Protection Mechanism facilitates operational uptake of new forecasting products by all Member States.
5. Leverage of the EU Innovation Ecosystem
• Direct pipeline from Horizon to EIT Climate-KIC accelerators and European Innovation Council (EIC) for spin-outs.
• Partnership with EuroGEOSS, ISIMIP, CLINT and XAIDA maximises dataset reuse.
• Access to >3,000 climate-tech SMEs listed in the Enterprise Europe Network (EEN) for piloting and commercialisation.
6. Funding Synergies & Blending Options
• LIFE Climate Adaptation – co-fund demonstration pilots based on project’s attribution tools.
• Digital Europe Programme – cover cloud/HPC costs for AI-based extreme-event emulators.
• ERDF / Interreg – finance regional roll-out (e.g., Alpine, Baltic, Mediterranean macro-regions).
• InvestEU & EIB Climate Risk Facility – scale private investments in resilient infrastructure informed by project outputs.
• ESA Earth-watch & CRYO-SAT missions – complementary data grants for cryosphere-related extremes.
7. EU-Wide Scale & Impact Potential
• Harmonised methodologies become de-facto European standard for Loss-&-Damage assessments, feeding into UNFCCC negotiations.
• Comparable risk metrics across Member States enable aggregation into EU-level catastrophe bonds, unlocking new finance instruments.
• Fast replication via the EU Mission on Climate-Neutral & Smart Cities (112 cities) and Mission Adaptation (150 regions).
8. Strategic Value over National-Level Initiatives
• Critical mass of data – pan-European observational networks multiply sample size of rare compound events, increasing statistical power.
• Political legitimacy – findings inform EU-28 solidarity funds, going beyond national interests and strengthening cohesion.
• Cost efficiency – single lump-sum grant avoids duplication of expensive HPC simulations.
9. Actionable Recommendations for Applicants
• Build a tri-angle consortium: climate-modelling centres (e.g., KNMI, DWD), social-sciences hubs (e.g., Sciences Po, LSE) and operational users (civil-protection agencies, insurers).
• Include at least three diverse climatic regions (e.g., Arctic, Continental, Mediterranean) to address EU evaluation on “geographic diversity & relevance”.
• Leverage Destination Earth by committing to upload improved parameterisations, fulfilling the call’s openness & FAIR requirements.
• Plan a policy sandbox with DG ECHO & DG CLIMA to prototype attribution-based early-warning dashboards.
• Reserve budget (≈5 %) for clustering with CLINT, XAIDA and forthcoming HORIZON-CL5-2024-D1 projects to satisfy coordination obligations.
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Bottom Line: Operating at EU scale multiplies scientific robustness, policy relevance and commercial potential; it positions the consortium as the reference provider of authoritative attribution and extreme-event forecasting for the entire European Union and its global partners.
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Ready to Apply?
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See in 5 min if you're eligible for The attribution to climate change, and improved forecasting of extreme and slow-onset climate- and weather-related events and their impacts offering max €56.0M funding